I Wanted to Bet on the Election but It's Not Allowed Over Here

Click here for An Open Letter to President Obama.

Having had time to catch up with Nate Silver's 538 Blog, which covered the presidential election in a rigorous statistical way for the layman, i.e., spoke stats in an accessible way that people without statistical training could make sense of all the election polls that came out daily, I remember that about three weeks before the election. I called all the Swing States for Obama. (I cannot recall if I included North Carolina or not, but if I did, I was only one state off.)

Still, I was at most only one Swing State off, while all the other election, poll, and statistical pundits were several states off. Note that I kept with my prediction over three before while Nate Silver, ABC, NBA, yadda yadda yadda maintained that Florida was still a toss up, with most of them believing that Florida would go to Romney.  Most also thought Romney had a slight edge in Virginia.

See Nate Silver's 538 Blog's Predictions One Day Before the Election.

However, I was a true believe in Obama Man until the very last. I staunchly refused to agree that Virginia or Florida would go to Romney, and even on the night of the election, when Romney was leading in Florida, I was in denial (much like Carl Rove about Ohio). Lo and behold, a couple of days later, Florida's still counting and has now certified their state's election votes for Obama. So, even with the latest polls up to the day before the electin, seems the pundits and statisticians didn't do any better than my forecast 3.5 weeks before.

It's like I said; it's hard for the pundits and statisticians sitting in their studio and computer labs to see what is going on in the real world, with volunteers standing in front of post offices and groceries stores, registering voters, giving people rides to early voting polls from churches and back, cold calling threatening people that if they do not vote early, they WILL get another phone call from us. Actually, Democrats registered new voters at a ratio of 10:1, that's ten-to-one! That means that if each new registered Republican in Florida voted (although it is highly unlikely to get 100% of new registered voters to vote), then all the Dems had to do was to get 11% of new registered voters to vote to match the Republicans.

(Tangent: It is the ground game, baby, and underlying this is a profound love for Obama. Ideas and Obama. You have to see it to believe it. The people in the Nevada State Democratic Party Office were not working until 11 p.m. each night for a candidate that only somewhat inspired them, like many conservatives felt about Romney, the volunteers and staff at the Nevada State Democratic Headquarters were full on stoked about BO. There were actually many people who flew in from around the country, taking time off from work, to help with the campaign, 'cuz they felt that they couldn't just sit there and do nothing!

Anyway, we partied late at the Mandalay but not as late as is typical for Sin City because it had been a long day. Many of us had only slept a few hours over the course of several days. But we were happy with a halo that came from the very core. Tangent's end, if there is such a thing, lol That mean's that's a joke and I think it's funny but I have to highlight it or else no one else will notice it! End of tangent, get it? Never mind, a friend and I are still debating what is meant by "end" in this case.)

So keeping up with all these stats, I looked up the odds on the election, because as any good statistician knows, odds on betting are usually at least as accurate as polls taken by Gallup, Rasmussesn, ABC, CNN, internal polls by the Romney party (see 538 blog for discussion of Romney's Exceedingly Inaccurate Internal Polls "When Internal Polls Mislead, a Whole Campaign May Be to Blame") because people put their money where their mouths are! The overseas gambling websites were offering 8-to-1 if Obama won 310-329 electoral votes, which was what I thought he would win (I was sure BO would win all of the Swing States, plus or minus one, again lol!) I was so confident, I was willing to bet money that I did not have!

I kept trying to place a bet on all the sites that OddsChecker sent me to and only a few sites had bets for predicting electoral votes. Hey, it's one thing t o bet on whether Ohio goes Republican or Democrat, or bet on the number of Swing States each candidate wins, it's another thing to think you know enough about each Swing State to predict what the electoral vote will be! The only site I found that gave odds on electoral votes was LadBrokes and they didn't take bets from Americans. Why not? I wondered, and looked everywhere for sites that took bets on the election. Oh, it occurred to me, probably not allowed in the U.S. because it would lead to some real perversion of the system. That dream lasted all of 43 minutes.

So, in order to keep me from talking Election Day In and Night Out, another one of my friends said, "All right already, I'll give you 8 to 1 odds if you will just be quiet about the election from now until then!" He meant Election Day and I said that I did not think that I could go that long. Could I at least talk about the election for two hours a day while my bet was on? Okay, he said, so I planned, I planned to bet but never had any money to bet, because if you read my previous post, I was hard up scrounging up $5 to donate to Obama's campaign, which I eventually was able to save up, ;-)

My friend asked me: So how much are you planning to put down?
I said: If I had the money, $500.
I'm going to keep it if you lose, he said. Tired of all this nonstop jibber jabber. When have you ever been so interested in elections?
I said: I've been since Gore v. Bush when the Supreme Court Justices who always championed states rights, took over the state just so they could rule for Bush!

So, by the time I had $5 to donate to Obama's fund, I had to head off to Las Vegas to help with the grassroots campaign and Election Day came and went, and it wasn't until two days after the election that I had enough to gamble. When my friend saw the electoral results, he said, "Whew! Thank goodness you were to poor to gamble. I would have been in to you for thousands!"

Now, this is coming from a girl who never gambles when in Las Vegas. I hit all the buffets and spend my tie chowing down on food until I have a belly ache, then pop out the Mylanta, and chow down some more!

However, once, I did gamble slots at a nickel machine when they still used real coins that made that semi-magical, entirely-cheap clanking noise and won 72 nickels! That's from betting only 1 nickel! Or maybe I won 144 nickels, somewhere between $3.60 - $7.20. I immediately stopped, did not make one more bet, because I KNOW WHEN TO STOP, collected my Handful of Nickels, and waited for a friend to come by because they were So Heavy I couldn't walk anywhere without them without being stared at and was afraid that someone would hit me over the head for my loot.

Thus it was ironic that the ONLY time I've ever wanted to bet, it wasn't to be, but at least I know in my heart that if I COULD HAVE bet, I would have been on the bullseye because when you've got something to believe in, you simply cannot lose!

4 More Years!
Cuatro Mas Anos!
Quatre Something Ans?


Check out the Inaugural Poem I wrote for President Obama! With Cliff Notes and Cheat Sheets, i.e., Background and Explanatory Notes, the Meaning behind the Rhyme!

A poem I wrote sort of for Mitt: "A Tale of Two Romneys by Ssal Nogard."

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

MY OTHER WRITINGS


What I Said When I saw Salvador Dali's Metamorphosis of Narcissus

PrincessBoo Wakes Up on the Wrong Side of the Bed